Why Supply Chains Need Design AND Planning | Optilogic

Optilogic CEO Don Hicks explains why the best supply chains make time to reimagine their networks—not just optimize them.

The Problem Most Supply Chain Leaders Face

Supply chain executives are drowning in operational demands. Between managing daily firefights and keeping products moving, there's barely time to ask, "what if?"

This reactive approach worked in stable markets. But today's environment of tariff volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, and rapid demand shifts calls for a different approach.

‍Design vs. Planning: What's the Difference?

Planning Optimizes What You Have

Planning focuses on running your current network efficiently. It answers questions like: How do I route shipments? Where should inventory sit? How do I minimize costs today?

Design Reimagines What's Possible

Design asks bigger questions: What if we had a different network entirely? Where should our facilities be in three years? How do we build resilience against unknowns?

According to Don Hicks, CEO of Optilogic, this requires a fundamental mindset shift—not just different tools or data.

"You really can't plan and design simultaneously. The data is the same, the algorithms are the same, but it's about a mindset shift."
— Don Hicks, CEO, Optilogic

Why Companies Struggle to Design

They're Too Busy Working IN the Business

Teams get consumed by tactical decisions. The urgency of today's shipments crowds out strategic thinking about tomorrow's network.

Most supply chain locations are "accidents of history"—placed decades ago for reasons that no longer apply. Yet companies rarely revisit these foundational decisions.

"Companies get so busy trying to optimize what they have, they can't pull their head up and say: What if I had a different network?"
— Don Hicks, CEO, Optilogic

They Lack the Right Mindset

Design requires stepping back from execution. It means dedicating time and resources to scenario modeling, stress testing, and exploring alternatives.

"Companies get so busy trying to optimize what they have, they can't pull their head up and say: What if I had a different network?" Hicks explains.

The Competitive Advantage of Continuous Design

Speed Through Uncertainty

Companies that design continuously can respond to disruptions faster. When tariffs shift or suppliers relocate, they already have alternative scenarios mapped out.

The best organizations don't wait for crises. They're constantly modeling what-ifs and building organizational muscle memory for adaptation.

Better ROI on Capital Investments

Design helps leaders evaluate trade-offs systematically. Should you invest in a new warehouse or upgrade your WMS? Proper network design provides the answer.

"Over the longer horizon, capital matters less than variable cost differentials," Hicks notes. Understanding these dynamics prevents costly mistakes.

How AI Changes Supply Chain Design (Without Replacing Humans)

What AI Does Exceptionally Well

AI automates the tedious parts of network design. It can fill in missing cost data, hunt down freight lane information, and process scenarios in hours instead of months.

This eliminates months of manual data work, according to Hicks.

What Humans Still Must Own

AI cannot make decisions under true uncertainty. It lacks context outside its training set and can't weigh strategic trade-offs that involve human judgment.

Hicks emphasizes that AI's limitations are real and significant—especially when dealing with unprecedented situations.

The Hybrid Model Wins

The most successful approach combines classical optimization methods with AI capabilities. Humans stay in the driver's seat, but with radically better tools.

"Design one year from now will not look like it has looked for the last 25 years. Humans will be in the driver's seat, but with radically shorter times."
— Don Hicks, CEO, Optilogic

Real-World Application: Learning from Halloween Supply Chains

Predictable Volatility Is Manageable

Halloween generates $13.1 billion in annual spending with intense 6-8 week windows. What seems chaotic to outsiders is highly predictable to practitioners.

Companies that master promotional spikes gain competitive advantage. The same principles apply to managing micro-bursts driven by social media and influencers.

Planning for the Expected AND Unexpected

The best companies plan for known patterns while designing for unknown disruptions. This dual capability separates leaders from laggards.

Reshoring and Nearshoring: Beyond the Hype

Tariffs Alone Won't Rebuild Manufacturing

"Tariffs alone are not going to build back an educated skilled workforce," Hicks argues. True reshoring requires investment in education and workforce development.

Cost manipulation through policy doesn't address root causes. Companies need skilled labor, infrastructure, and stable regulatory environments.

Tools like Optilogic’s Lumina Tariff Optimizer put control back in the hands of businesses to model the financial impact of tariff scenarios and make data-driven decisions about sourcing and manufacturing locations.

Look Beyond the Next Five Years

Smart manufacturers evaluate demographics, regulatory stability, and long-term labor availability. Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, represents future opportunity as populations grow.

China evolved from low-cost to high-capability provider. The next manufacturing hubs will follow similar trajectories.

Culture Beats Strategy Every Time

Why Technology Isn't the Answer

The best technology fails without aligned teams. Winners focus on how people work together—whether teams are aligned around shared values and understand the mission.

"Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk culture. AI doesn't change any of that stuff. It's back to the fundamentals."
— Don Hicks, CEO, Optilogic

AI Doesn't Change Human Fundamentals

Artificial intelligence changes workflows, but organizational culture remains paramount. Getting humans to collaborate effectively still determines success.

Trust: The Currency of Global Supply Chains

Easy to Lose, Hard to Rebuild

Recent trade policy volatility has eroded confidence in long-term partnerships. The real damage isn't short-term uncertainty—it's the inability to believe promises, making strategic planning nearly impossible.

"Trust takes a long time to build and you can lose it overnight. The real damage isn't uncertainty—it's the inability to believe promises."
— Don Hicks, CEO, Optilogic

Small Companies Bear the Biggest Burden

Large enterprises can afford lobbyists and navigate exceptions. Small companies lack these resources, putting them at severe disadvantage.

Trade uncertainty disproportionately harms the small businesses that form the backbone of the economy.

Moving Beyond the AI Hype Cycle

Separating Real Value from Pixie Dust

"We'll talk to people and they'll say, 'AI is going to do it for me,'" Hicks recounts. "How? Pixie dust, glitter parades, and unicorns?"

The industry is emerging from magical thinking. Leaders now want practical answers: What can AI actually do? What can't it do?

Focus on Productivity Breakthroughs

2026 will mark a shift from hype to results. Companies that combine great technology with proven principles will pull ahead.

"We're going to move beyond the hype to combine great new technology with old school principles," Hicks predicts.

What This Means for Supply Chain Leaders

Build Dual Capabilities

Don't choose between planning and design. Organizations need both operating simultaneously to survive and thrive.

Create dedicated time and resources for strategic network design. Make it as important as daily execution.

Control What You Can Control

External factors like tariffs and trade policy remain volatile. But companies control their culture, decision-making processes, and technology adoption.

Focus on building internal capabilities rather than obsessing over uncontrollable externalities.

Invest in Speed and Agility

Breakthroughs that once took years now happen in quarters. The pace of change demands organizations that can design, test, and implement faster than ever.

The question isn't whether to invest in supply chain design capabilities. It's whether you can afford not to.

Key Takeaways

On Design vs. Planning:
You can't do both simultaneously, but you must do both to survive. Planning optimizes today; design prepares for tomorrow.

On AI:
Artificial intelligence accelerates design cycles but doesn't replace human judgment. The winning formula combines classical methods with AI capabilities.

On Culture:
Technology matters less than how people work together. Aligned teams with shared values outperform sophisticated tools in fragmented organizations.

On Trust:
Supply chain relationships depend on trust, which takes years to build but moments to destroy. Policy volatility erodes the foundation of global partnerships.

On Control:
Stop worrying about uncontrollable externalities. Focus on culture, capabilities, and partnerships you can influence.

Ready to Prepare Your Supply Chain for Tomorrow?

Don Hicks and the Optilogic team help manufacturers and retailers stress-test their supply chains and model scenarios for an uncertain future.

Contact us to explore how continuous design capabilities can benefit your organization.

Connect with Don Hicks on LinkedIn or reach him directly at don@optilogic.com.

Watch the full interview: Don Hicks joined Supply Chain Now to discuss supply chain design, AI's real capabilities, and navigating uncertainty. Watch on YouTube.